Weekly Market Strategies Newsletter has been around for over two decades.
Charles has been involved with Princeton Research for over 10 years and utilizes a free “texting “service as well as being on the weekly radio show “MoneyInfo,” brought to you by Princeton Research. The show airs on WPSL in Port St. Lucie, Florida as well as the Internet broadcast on www.WPSL.com. This included in depth interviews with newly emerging companies as well as call in questions from listeners about general market and individual stock issues. In addition, The Moskowitz Report now issues a Daily Report with commentary and additional trading ideas every evening.
Charles Moskowitz Discussion
Week 30 was a minor profit of only $50, bringing our YTD gains to $7,187. We have only 3 open positions including a bull spread in HL. Funds in use are only $1,009.
As noted here and in my daily updates I have become more bullish, while still expecting a tradable pullback into the support. Technically, the longer the market consolidates above its breakout to new highs, the more likely the move continues. The problem here is that there is another school of thought that says, “Flat tops bring drops.” And for 10 of the last 12 days we have had a pattern of up today down tomorrow with internals also alternating day by day. Also, there are more than a few big names that look tentative at best. I know that after the July run-up some sideways movement is in order, but there were some spectacular moves up on earnings. However, many of them petered out and closed midrange. Some of the biggest names and dividend payers are dramatically overbought and the trades are very crowded.
The Sunday morning shows all seem to be leaning in favor of Hillary, and the most often used expression is “a continuation of the status quo,” and while the market loves the “evil you know vs. the one you don’t know,” I believe it spells deep trouble for both economic growth and the move toward even more public entitlement. Trump is Trump and without hearing anything substantive about his actual plans it’s hard to see a reason to go along for a ride on that train. Unless he starts to do some explaining, it won’t be as close as the polls show it now.
The A.A.I.I. numbers continue to point to no specific direction. The bull is still 20 under average and bears just a hair under average, while neutral is 34% over average. Clearly it is summer and nobody really wants to do much of anything. As Mike points out later in the letter, the consumer has stepped back into the checkout lines and spending increased. Also of note was the decline in inventories, which I personally consider a bright spot. The last thing I would care to see is write-offs of unsold goods on top of declining top line growth.
Remembering that the next two months tend to be well into the sub-par performance category for the market and we are overbought, there will still be trades to be made. Keeping that in mind, I will look for some of the laggards that can move while using close stops. The trade in FAST is an excellent example with a purchase price of $42.15 and a stop less than 2% below. Have a good week and be careful out there…CAM
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